Automotive Sector

Automotive Sector Q4-2024

Automotive Sector Q4-2024

M&A News & Insights
 

Global automotive M&A activity climbed to new highs in 2024

In 2024, a total of 472 transactions in the automotive sector has been observed, which is the highest number of deals since 2020 when 260 deals took place globally.

Asian domestic deals made by far the largest contribution to rising deal flow in the sector. In 2024, 208 automotive deals were counted in Asia domestic which compares to only 77 deals back in 2020. This represents a remarkable increase of 170% or 131 transactions in 2024 versus 2020.

The global uprising automotive transaction activity was also strongly driven by European domestic M&A activity. In 2024, the region contributed 116 automotive transactions which is a substantial increase of 76% (plus 50 transactions) compared to only 66 European domestic deals back in 2020.

In contrast, North American domestic’s deal activity remained flattish with 67 transactions in 2024 compared to 70 deals in 2020. However, North American outbound transactions into Europe saw a steep increase. In 2020, only 8 transactions were counted while in 2024 a total number of 22 deals took place, representing a stellar increase of 175% over 2020.



Global deals & volumne 202-2024

Dealflow Q4-2024 marked a five years high

In Q4-2024, global automotive deal count stood at 139 transactions which is a solid increase of 25 deals (+22%) over Q3-2024. Compared to Q4-2023, an increase of 15 deals (+12%) was observed. It is worth to mention that the quarterly global automotive transaction count marked a new high in Q4-2024 (our analysis dates to Q1-2019).

Main drivers of the outstanding Q4-2024 M&A activity were transactions in the body & chassis, brakes, steering, exterior and interior segments while transactions in the electric vehicle segment did contribute to a lesser extent to the quarter’s uprising deal flow activity.


Global Deals & volume 2024 by quarter

Stock-listed automotive suppliers trade at uninspiring implied valuation levels across the globe

As per February 2025, European automotive suppliers trade at an implied EV/EBITDA 25E multiple of 4.3x (median-based) which is a slight uplift of 0.3x EV/EBITDA multiple points compared to 4.0x as per BDO’s Q3-2024 valuation analysis.

North American automotive suppliers’ valuation levels remained stable. The implied EV/EBITDA 25E multiple stood at 4.9x (median-based) in February 2025 compared to 5.0x as per the Q3-2024 automotive sector update.

In the Asian region, stock-listed automotive suppliers traded at an implied EV/EBITDA 25E multiple of 4.8x compared to 4.6x in the last quarter representing a valuation inflation of 0.2x EV/EBITDA multiple points multiple points.





Stock listet automotive suppliers

Share price outperformance of North American automotive suppliers continues

In line with the observed mid-term historic trading pattern, North American stock-listed automotive suppliers continue to deliver share price outperformance over their European and Asian peers. Over the last three years, the North American automotive supplier peer group experienced a total share price appreciation of 75% compared to negative 5% of the Asian peer group and negative 33% of European peers.

Continental and DANA with exceptional last six month performance

Within our European automotive supplier peer universe, Continental delivered the best share price performance (+24.0%) over the last six months (as per February 2025). Main driver of Continental’s share price performance was a solid 9M-24 result. Adjusted EBIT figures exceeded expectations due to cost savings and a new pricing structure against the headwinds of weak automotive production.

In North America, the share price of DANA performed even better (plus 41.1%) over the same period. The uplift was mainly due to DANA’s convincing FY24 performance. Adjusted EBITDA increased versus prior years on the back of both efficiency and cost-savings measures despite overall lower sales as well as inflation effects





L6M-share-price-performance

European Union — New car registrations 2024 summary

As per the ACEA, new car registrations in the EU climbed slightly by 0.8% to 10.6m units in 2024. The Spanish market achieved the highest 2024 growth rates in terms of new car registrations with an increase of +7.1% compared to declines in France (-3.2%), Germany (-1%), and Italy (-0.5%).

In terms of car power source, petrol cars led the market with 33.3% share of all EU 2024 car registrations, followed by HEVs (30.9%) and BEVs (13.6%) while Diesel powered cars achieved a 11.9% share.

The total number of new BEV registrations in the EU declined by 5.9% in 2024 to 1,447k units (compared to 1,536k units in 2023). In Germany, the decline was even more significant with a count of 381k new BEV registrations in 2024 which represents a decline of 27.4% compared to 2023 (524k new BEV registrations).

In the EU, only the HEV segment experienced a growth in new car registrations in 2024. HEV registrations increased by 20.9% (plus 568k) to 3,288k HEV units. In Germany, the HEV registration number climbed to 755k (plus 13.7% over 2023) in 2024.

The number of EU new car registrations with a petrol or diesel engine slumped in 2024 versus 2023 by 4.8%, and 11.4%, respectively. In Germany, the trend was pretty much different with new petrol car registrations up by 1.4% to 992k units, and new diesel car registrations only slightly down by 0.7% to 483k units.



New EU car registrations 2024

Automotive Sector M&A News

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